commodities
segunda-feira, maio 31, 2004
fsp 30may04
O VAIVÉM DAS COMMODITIES
Soja pressiona câmbio
Não foram só os juros nos EUA e o risco-país que pressionaram o câmbio nas últimas semanas. A participação da soja também foi importante nesse mercado, diz um trader. A presença de fungicida na soja exportada para a China no mês passado mudou a rotina de pagamentos no setor.
Como era
Diante do grande volume de exportação, muitos importadores aceitavam declarações de exportadores de que a soja era de boa qualidade e adiavam o recebimento do certificado fitossanitário emitido por órgãos do governo. Em alguns casos, esse certificado final só era entregue pelos exportadores entre 10 e 15 dias depois que os navios deixavam o porto.
Como ficou
Após a presença do fungicida no Sul, os importadores só pagam a soja com o certificado definitivo de que o produto está de acordo com os limites de tolerância do mercado internacional. O grande volume exportado provoca o atraso de alguns certificados e, conseqüentemente, o atraso no pagamento da carga aos exportadores.
Ida ao mercado
Alguns exportadores, para cobrir pagamentos de curto prazo, tiveram de ir ao mercado buscar dólares. Esse volume parece pequeno, mas saem navios diariamente dos portos brasileiros. O valor da carga de dez deles, por exemplo, soma pelo menos US$ 160 milhões, diz o trader.
Queda no curto prazo
Os preços da soja mantiveram tendência de queda nos contratos de curto prazo na Bolsa de Chicago. Faz parte do efeito China. Mas os contratos do final de ano subiram devido ao excesso de umidade nas lavouras dos EUA.
Fim do boom?
O boom do agronegócio pode perder ritmo nos próximos anos e não crescer às mesmas taxas de 2003 e de 2004. O setor deverá, no máximo, repetir os patamares de exportações que vêm registrando. Dois produtos podem fazer a diferença nesse desempenho: soja e carne bovina.
A diferença
A oleaginosa, depois de superar US$ 10 por bushel, está em queda e deve retornar para o patamar de cerca de US$ 6 nos próximos anos. Já a carne bovina, setor que o país está assumindo a liderança mundial, deverá ter a oferta reduzida porque os pecuaristas estão matando grande parte das matrizes. A recomposição do rebanho pode demorar.
Sintonia fina
Argentinos e uruguaios tiveram de se adaptar ao mercado brasileiro e reduziram os preços do arroz exportado para o Brasil. Devido ao aumento de oferta, os preços estão em queda no Sul.
Vai para o consumidor
Com a recuperação dos preços do café, as indústrias estão pagando 30% a mais pelo produto nos últimos 20 dias. Se a alta persistir, o preço do café industrializado deverá ser realinhado em 15%, segundo o diretor-executivo da Abic, Nathan Herszkowicz.
Manual do Sindirações
A FAO (órgão da ONU) publicará um "Manual Mundial de Boas Práticas de Fabricação" para rações baseado no "Guia do Sindirações". A decisão foi tomada em reunião do Codex Alimentarius, na Dinamarca. O setor movimenta US$ 9 bilhões anualmente no Brasil e gera 62 mil empregos.
E-mail:
mzafalon@folhasp.com.br
quinta-feira, maio 27, 2004
nyt 27may04
May 27, 2004
Deadly Blight Threatening Orange Trees in Brazil
By TODD BENSON
OLÔ MBIA, Brazil - When Henrique Fiorese noticed in 2002 that some of his orange trees were yellowing and losing their leaves, he thought at first that it was just another bout with a pesky crop pest called citrus variegated chlorosis. That disease only causes fruit to harden and trees to wilt; it does not kill them.
But when his trees started dying, Mr. Fiorese knew he was up against something potentially more devastating.
This time his plants were left in a gnarl of barren branches, looking more like witch's hair than lush orange trees.
"The damage was just brutal," recalled Mr. Fiorese, 46, who has been growing oranges on a 690-acre farm in this area in northern São Paulo State for as long as he can remember. "My first thought was, 'God, I'm going to lose everything.' "
Mr. Fiorese did not lose everything. But he has lost a lot - more than $100,000 and counting - as have hundreds of other Brazilian farmers since a mysterious new crop disease began ripping through the heart of the country's citrus belt in 2001. The disease, being called citrus sudden death, is highly contagious and can kill an orange tree within weeks after the first symptoms appear. It attacks a tree's veins and eventually causes the roots to rot, cutting off the flow of water and nutrients to the rest of the plant.
For an agricultural powerhouse like Brazil, where orange trees outnumber people, the threat posed by citrus sudden death is a serious one. Oranges are one of the country's biggest breadwinners, providing jobs for 400,000 people and bringing in a hefty $1.3 billion a year in exports. Brazil is the world's No. 1 citrus grower, with 5 out of every 10 glasses of orange juice consumed around the globe squeezed from this nation's fruit.
The disease was first detected in early 2001 in the southern part of the state of Minas Gerais and soon spilled over into groves in northern São Paulo, the state that produces almost 90 percent of Brazil's oranges for export. In just over three years, sudden death has wiped out more than 2.5 million orange trees in the region, costing growers about $40 million.
While that is still only about 2 percent of Brazil's total citrus crop, researchers fear that nearly all the country's orange groves could be at risk. Because few citrus plantations here are irrigated, a vast majority of Brazilian orange trees are grafted to rangpur lime stalks, a root variety that is resistant to drought. But rangpur rootstocks are also especially vulnerable to sudden death, leading some experts to predict that as many as 85 percent of the country's orange trees may have to be replanted in the next six years if the disease is not kept at bay.
That turn of events could eventually mean a significant drop in citrus production in Brazil and drive up prices for frozen concentrated orange juice on world markets, something that has been avoided until now.
"So far, we don't have enough evidence to say for sure if it's going to spread through the whole state," said Nelson Gimenes, the chief plant pathologist at Fundecitrus, a citrus research group in Araraquara, an affluent farming town in São Paulo's orange region.
"But," he added, "there is also nothing that indicates that it's going to stay put. And the scary thing is that if it does spread, we're talking about almost the entire crop."
Though its cause is still unknown, researchers say sudden death could be a mutant form of tristeza dos citros - literally the citrus trees' sorrow - a deadly virus that destroyed more than 80 percent of São Paulo's orange trees in the 1940's and remains widespread in Florida's groves today. If they are right, it would be a cruel twist of fate. It was the tristeza outbreak that drove Brazilians to rely so heavily on the rangpur rootstock in the first place because it was the only variety that survived the epidemic.
What is known for sure is that sudden death is transmitted by aphids, tiny insects that feed on plants and can incubate for up to three years before trees show any symptoms. That means the disease may have already spread beyond northern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais.
Researchers also recently discovered that the volkameriano lime, a rootstock that was originally thought to be resistant to sudden death, is in fact susceptible to it, raising the possibility that other varieties may also be at risk.
Still, there may be hope for a cure now that scientists are almost certain that sudden death is caused by a virus, not bacteria.
"If it's a viral disease, you can come up with a vaccine, and that's what we're trying to do," said Fernando Reinach, president of Alellyx Applied Genomics, a Brazilian bioresearch company that is trying to develop orange trees resistant to sudden death. "It's the same thing with viruses that attack human beings."
In the meantime, growers are scrambling to protect their groves by grafting other rootstock varieties that have proved resistant to sudden death, like swingle citrumelo and cleopatra tangerine, to existing rangpur stalks. The process, known as inarching, helps restore the flow of nutrients through the plant and has already nursed thousands of orange trees back to life.
Large-scale producers like Mr. Fiorese, who expects to lose up to 60 percent of his 80,000 trees, are also investing in irrigation systems as they replant their groves with rootstocks that are more threatened by dry weather than the rangpur variety. But not everyone has the cash or the water to irrigate, so some citrus farmers will probably end up migrating to southern São Paulo State, where rainfall is more abundant. Others are already ripping out orange trees and planting sugar cane instead.
"Without a doubt, this disease is going to change everything in the Brazilian orange industry," said Adermerval Garcia, president of Abecitrus, a trade association representing Brazilian orange juice exporters.
Sudden death is also raising eyebrows in Florida, Brazil's archrival in the orange business. Wholesale orange juice prices are hovering at their lowest level in nearly three decades and consumption is declining because of the popularity of low-carbohydrate diets in the United States. So, the prospect of a new crop pest like sudden death making its way to Florida is a headache that American orange growers could certainly do without.
But if the disease ends up wreaking havoc only in Brazil, it could be a chance for the Florida citrus industry to regain lost market share.
"On the one hand, this is being looked at as a threat over time if it could come here," said Ron Hamel, executive vice president of the Gulf Citrus Growers Association, a trade group representing orange farmers in southwest Florida.
"But on the other hand, you've got to ask, Well, is it going to help reduce production? At this stage in the game, I would see a reduction in production as being positive for Florida."
segunda-feira, março 29, 2004
fsp 29mar04
O governo, a soja e o trovão
JORGE BORNHAUSEN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
O prejuízo já está sacramentado e inscrito na conta negativa do ano 2004 do "desgoverno Lula"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
O grande azar do "desgoverno Lula" é que as fábulas estão sendo reescritas e o castigo já não anda a cavalo, antecipa-se como o raio, que já caiu quando se vê o relâmpago e ouve-se o trovão.
Por isso, nesses dias, enquanto a TV mostrava a fila de caminhões de soja alcançando 80 km, cobrindo toda a extensão da rodovia que vai de Paranaguá à região metropolitana de Curitiba, e os repórteres anunciavam que havia navios esperando mais de 30 dias ao largo, os jornais circulavam com a revelação de que os produtores brasileiros estão perdendo US$ 1,2 bilhão na atual safra com o deságio, espécie de castigo pela demora e dificuldades de o produto chegar aos portos importadores.
Trata-se de uma espécie de taxa que o mercado internacional aplica a determinados produtos, conforme as dificuldades e o tempo exigido até que os compradores os tenham em seus armazéns. São dólares que deveriam engordar as receitas brasileiras de comércio exterior e que são perdidos como punição às más condições de infra-estrutura e entraves burocráticos do nosso país. Ou seja, é dinheiro que o agricultor brasileiro deveria receber pela soja que produziu e perde pela incapacidade do governo de cumprir sua parte no processo de exportação.
Antigamente, no tempo em que o castigo andava a cavalo, esse prejuízo só apareceria no final, quando se fechasse a contabilidade. Agora, em tempos de internet, é apurado on-line. O raio já caiu, isto é, o tal ágio já está sendo cobrado, e não se espera o fim da safra para fazer a conta. O relâmpago e o trovão servirão apenas, como se verá nos próximos meses, quando se registrarem os justos protestos e indignação dos agricultores. O prejuízo já está sacramentado e inscrito na conta negativa do ano 2004 do "desgoverno Lula" e seus petistas despreparados, concorrentes sérios ao título de pior equipe de administradores já reunida neste país.
Mas o que se pode esperar de um governo que perde tempo -já estamos avançados no segundo mês desde que a denúncia do caso Waldomiro apareceu- tentando abafar um reles caso de corrupção, mobilizando para isso todo o seu sistema de apoio parlamentar, só para impedir uma CPI requerida legalmente?
Esse tempo perdido do governo Lula e seus principais colaboradores no inútil pega-esconde para sepultar um caso de corrupção faz falta à ação administrativa concreta de emergência na área dos transportes, que, além da sobrecarga com o aumento das safras, sofreu os efeitos das chuvas do último inverno.
Na verdade, não houve planejamento estratégico e o pais está colhendo 52 milhões de toneladas de soja com uma logística de armazenamento e transportes estabelecida quando colhia apenas 28 milhões de toneladas. Mais ou menos, como ouvi de um produtor do Mato Grosso do Sul, "o mesmo que usar um motor de Ferrari numa velha carcaça de um fusquinha". O prejuízo seria muito maior se não tivesse ocorrido uma quebra de safra de 8 milhões de toneladas, por adversidades climáticas nos principais Estados produtores.
Se o país tivesse um governo atento à nossa realidade, estaríamos todos mobilizados para vencer a grande batalha de escoamento dessa impressionante safra de grãos e a redução do absurdo deságio de US$ 1,2 bilhão, que certamente cobriria, com vantagem, só com os impostos que geraria, um verdadeiro plano nacional de combate à pobreza, que mudaria a situação de indigência de setores rurais e urbanos. Evidentemente um verdadeiro projeto social, menos propaganda e mais socorro à população necessitada.
Que brasileiro, alertado pela reportagem de Mauro Zafalon, no Agrogolha de 23/3, de que a soja brasileira estava sendo negociada na Bolsa de Chicago por apenas US$ 9,3575 por bushel, enquanto a soja americana obtinha US$ 1.056,10, não sentiu indignação com o fato de esse deságio humilhante derivar única e exclusivamente da nossa desorganização operacional? Principalmente porque esse deságio não foi imposto por nenhum imperialismo, mas foi conseqüência do fato elementar de os navios do importador levarem no máximo quatro dias para encostar e carregar sua carga de soja americana no golfo do México, enquanto estão levando 35 dias para realizar a mesma operação em Paranaguá.
E quem paga o pato? O produtor, que é quem tem sua soja desvalorizada.
Já que é incapaz de perceber as diferenças da velocidade da luz e do som e se comporta diante dos raios da economia com tanta insensibilidade, o governo poderia ao menos entender o ribombar desse trovão, expresso na espantosa cifra de US$ 1,2 bilhão perdidos pela agricultura brasileira. Prejuízo devido a um governo que perde tempo abafando CPIs, quando deveria estar preparando o país para a safra de 2005, já que a perda dos agricultores em 2004 é fato consumado.
Já que o governo vive em busca de temas para uma agenda positiva, está aí um magnífico pretexto para fazer alguma coisa. Ouvir o trovejar dessa perda de US$ 1,2 bilhão da safra de soja e fazer alguma coisa para que não se repita. Ou continuaremos a patinar no abafa-abafa do caso Waldomiro Diniz?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jorge Konder Bornhausen, 66, é senador pelo PFL-SC e presidente nacional do partido. Foi governador de Santa Catarina (1979-82) e ministro da Educação (governo Sarney) e da Secretaria de Governo da Presidência da República (governo Collor).
ap 29mar04
Experts Question Brazil's Infrastructure
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 3:48 p.m. ET
PARANAGUA, Brazil (AP) -- As seagulls perched on idled cranes at Brazil's largest grain port, more than 50 freighters lay anchored offshore, waiting to take cargo from 6,000 big rigs stuck on a highway in a 44-mile line stretching from lush tropical peaks down to the sea.
The unprecedented five-day shutdown of the Paranagua port prevented 1.3 million metric tons of soybeans and corn from being exported on time, sent soy futures soaring amid rising worldwide demand -- and raised concerns that Brazil's shaky infrastructure could hurt its bid to become the planet's agricultural superpower.
``What a mess,'' said Steve Nicholson, a senior economist for Doane Agricultural Services in St. Louis, who closely follows the international soy market. ``This is an Achilles heel for Brazil: The poor infrastructure and their inability to deal with it.''
The port, which closed when thousands of shippers and longshoremen went on strike protesting alleged mismanagement at the government-run docks, ended on Thursday. But it will take days for full operations to resume just as Brazil enters the peak of its soybean harvest.
Though trucks and trains laden with soy are now rumbling again along the potholed streets of Paranagua toward its deep water harbor, the shutdown showed Brazil still faces huge challenges getting valuable export products abroad.
Making matters worse, the port's sudden closure -- its first ever -- happened as soy prices approached their highest level since 1988, with buyers depending on the world's second largest producer after the United States to get soybeans to market on schedule. Frantic commodities traders pushed soy prices to a 16-year high on the shutdown's fourth day.
Images of stalled trucks and a deserted port, shown worldwide, hurt Brazil's image but could benefit American farmers.
``U.S. growers and their trade associations are always harping to Asian buyers: `We are reliable, and we get it to delivered to you, on time, with no problems,''' Nicholson said.
With demand for soy skyrocketing amid huge purchases by China and increasing use of the high-protein oilseed in everything from processed food to animal feed, Brazilian farmers have ramped up production over the last decade -- taking advantage of low land and labor costs, plentiful water, a forgiving climate and advanced agricultural technology.
But while Brazilian soy production has doubled since 1997 and is expected to surpass the U.S. in a few years, investment in ports, highways and railroads hasn't kept pace. After taking office last year, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva froze all new road projects in favor of maintaining crumbling existing highways.
In the top soy producing state of Mato Grosso, the situation is so bad that a consortium of producers, tired of dispatching tractors to pull soybean trucks stuck in the muddy tracks that pass as roads, is financing and paving its own 49-mile link with the closest highway. A shortage of silos is so acute that small municipalities offer up their town squares as storage lots until truckers arrive.
Truckers heading to the Paranagua port in the southern state of Parana are treated to a modern four-lane highway amid a stunning backdrop of mountains dropping to the coast for the last leg of their trip. But then they face delays of up to two days unloading their rigs even when the port is operating normally.
During the strike, trucker Antonio Almeida Rodrigues seethed for nine days a dozen miles from the port as he guarded his truck loaded with 26 tons of soybeans parked on the highway's shoulder.
``This just shouldn't happen,'' said Rodrigues, 50. ``This is one of the biggest ports in Latin America, and it should be the best in the world.''
Brazilian-style bare knuckles politics also played a role in the shutdown of the port, which is run by the brother of Parana state Governor Roberto Requiao. Shippers and longshoremen say Gov. Requiao never followed through with promises to improve the port, and made loading delays worse by eliminating overtime for longshoremen.
He lashed back by accusing strike organizers of trying to privatize the port for their own benefit, and called a Parana farmers' group official a ``big rat'' after the official complained about the port's rat eradication program.
The strike started March 19 and got ugly last weekend when the offices of a Paranagua shippers association were gutted by fire. Julio Cesar Juchen, the association's executive secretary, said he ran from the office with two other workers after hearing a cacophony of car horns outside.
Cars and motorcycles blocked the road, and dozens of men he didn't recognize broke down the door with a wooden plank, setting the office on fire before getting back into their vehicles and racing away.
``We think it's coming from the other side, but we don't have proof,'' he said. Police said they have no suspects.
Strikers and Requiao reached an agreement Wednesday to reopen the port after deciding they would meet in the future to discuss the port's problems.
But the port remained mostly out of operation for another day because truckers, angry about losing loads during the shutdown, blocked the highway with their rigs and refused to unload their soybeans. That impasse was resolved after truckers accepted an offer of 23 million reals ($8 million) to be split among them for their down time.
The Paranagua shutdown helped send soybean prices for May delivery to $10.56 per bushel on Monday, the highest level for the near-contract month since June 1988.
The price dipped to $10.52 Tuesday and sank 28.5 cents per bushel to $10.23 Wednesday as relieved traders reacted to news the port would reopen.
``This just shows you have very bad management on top of bad roads and an insufficient rail system,'' said David Fleischer, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia. ``To have this happen on the eve of massive demand for exports is pretty stupid.''
quarta-feira, março 10, 2004
ft 10mar04
withdrop in gold leasing rates (5% -> 0.25%) and upwards movement in price it is unattractive for cb's to hold gold, hence the gold selling.
Market Insight: Muted reaction for gold pact
By Kevin Morrison in London and Tony Major in Frankfurt
Published: March 9 2004 16:39 | Last Updated: March 9 2004 16:39
The gold market's muted reaction to the renewal of the European central bank gold agreement was just the ticket for bankers.
It marked a successful managing of expectations by central banks. It was also a stark contrast to the first accord in September 1999, when gold prices soared more than $50 per troy ounce - or about 25 per cent from 20-year lows - as traders showed surprise that the banks had actually agreed to form an orderly queue to sell some of their gold holdings.
Under the new accord agreed to on Monday, 15 European central banks plan to raise the limit on annual gold sales to 500 tonnes a year over the five years to September 2009, from 400 tonnes under the present accord, which expires in September. The gold price has remained within a $3 range around the $400-a-troy-ounce level for the past two days.
The sharp price move that followed the previous agreement had an adverse effect on central bank gold lending activities - the main source of income from their holdings - as it led to a decline in the rate banks could charge for leasing their gold to miners who wanted to hedge. It marked the beginning of the end for the forward gold sales boom of the 1980s and 1990s.
This activity, also known as gold hedging, gave miners secure future revenues, but also had the effect of increasing supply. The big rise in hedging was widely blamed for the gold price decline to its 20-year nadir of $250 a troy ounce in 1999.
Gold leasing rates have fallen from about 5 per cent in September 1999 to the current level of about 0.25 per cent. The fall in rates has made it less attractive for central banks to hold vast amounts of gold.
"There is no lending business to speak of these days, and that is because there is nobody hedging any more," said one official at a European central bank.
Analysts said the reduction in gold hedging in turn helped boost gold prices, as has the dollar's decline. The dollar gold price has risen by more than 40 per cent since September 1999, while it has increased 15 per cent over the same period in euro terms.
The gold bullion market is now watching carefully which central banks will sell, and how the proceeds will be spent. Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands have committed about 800 tonnes between them, leaving another 1,700 tonnes to be allocated for sale.
Ernst Welteke, Bundesbank president, is expected to hold further talks with senior politicians in the next few days about his plan for gold sales under the next central bank pact.
Mr Welteke has said the Bundesbank wants an option to sell 600 tonnes of gold, worth about €7bn. He has suggested using some of the proceeds to fund education and research projects. Such a move would require a change in the law governing the Bundesbank and is opposed by some senior German politicians who say it is not for the central bank to decide how the funds should be used.
Normally the central bank's profits would be transferred to the government, which would use it to reduce public debt.
John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS, said official gold sales would continue as several European central banks have large proportions of their foreign reserves invested in gold. Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland - the four signatories with the largest gold holdings - have 43 per cent, 54 per cent, 46 per cent and 31 per cent of their total reserves in gold.
"A reduction towards the average of around 10 per cent seems inevitable," he said.
terça-feira, março 09, 2004
ft 08mar04
Markets / Commodities Print article | Email
European banks to increase gold sales
By Tony Major and Kevin Morrison
Published: March 8 2004 20:37 | Last Updated: March 8 2004 20:37
European central banks on Monday raised the amount of gold they planned to sell over the next five years, with a significant share of the proceeds expected to help plug the budget deficits in Germany, and possibly France and Italy.
But the deal, which was broadly in line with market expectations, gave no indication of how sales would be allocated and could yet herald a bout of fierce haggling between the 15 signatories.
The 15 central banks said they would limit joint sales of their gold reserves to 500 tonnes a year over the five years to September 2009, or a total of 2,500. This is above the 400 tonnes a year sale limit under the current five-year accord, which expires in September.
"There has been no agreement yet (on gold sale allocations), but that will be the next thing we will have to work out," said one official at a European central bank.
Market reaction was muted. Gold remained steady around $400 a troy ounce, as the proposed amount for sale was well within market expectations. At current prices, total proceeds from the gold sales would be about $80bn.
The pact, which was signed by the European Central Bank, the 12 national central banks of the euro-zone and the central banks of Switzerland and Sweden, was announced after a Group of 10 meeting in Basle, Switzerland.
The one absentee from the original agreement was Britain, which along with Denmark are the only two EU members not signed to the new pact. Britain sold 395 tonnes in the first pact.
UK Treasury officials said they wanted to be clear to the bullion market that they had no intention of selling gold, and therefore did not want to create any ambiguity by signing the new accord.
So far, German has said it has an option to sell 600 tonnes in the new pact. Switzerland and the Netherlands will have about 200 tonnes in total to sell in the new accord that they were unable to sell in the original pact. Leaving 1,700 tonnes of gold needed to be allocated for sale. Only France and Italy has bullion holdings that are large enough to fill this void.
Italy, the third biggest holder of gold in the euro-zone, is also thought to be keen to sell some gold as is France although the French central bank has traditionally been hostile to drawing down bullion stocks.
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB and chairman of the G10 central bankers, said the signatories had considered it "appropriate" to renew the pact before the end of the current agreement.
Although the banks said: "Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves," it is having less importance for central banks.
Central banks now hold about a quarter of the world's gold produced, compared with more than 50 per cent of gold in circulation in the early 1960s.
terça-feira, fevereiro 24, 2004
wsp 24feb04
China to Certify Safety Of Soybeans From U.S.
By Peter S. Goodman
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 24, 2004; Page E01
SHANGHAI, Feb. 23 -- China agreed on Monday to certify as safe imported shipments of genetically modified soybeans, removing a crucial obstacle to trade in a commodity valued at $4.8 billion last year, while cooling a high-profile spat with the United States.
China's decision, announced without fanfare in a statement posted on the Web site of the Ministry of Agriculture, means that multinational agribusiness giants such as Cargill Inc. and Bunge Ltd. will soon be able to freely import soybeans without first having to obtain permits attesting to the safety of individual cargo loads.
The United States is the largest source of China's imported soybeans, followed by Brazil and Argentina. More than 80 percent of soybeans grown in the United States are genetically modified to resist herbicides, making it easier for farmers to control weeds.
The frequent expiration of temporary food safety permits and uncertainty over their terms of renewal has left importers vulnerable to a bureaucratic quagmire. Last summer, Chinese authorities forced dozens of tankers to idle near ports, sometimes for weeks at a time, while shippers waited for new permits. The ensuing shortage of soybeans -- which are ground into animal feed and cooking oil -- contributed to a spike in the price of meat throughout China.
Monday's decision to scrap the interim permits and adopt a permanent system handed a victory to U.S. officials and agribusiness concerns, which have lobbied strenuously for the certification, elevating the issue into one of the most contested in the increasingly tense trade relations between Washington and Beijing.
"This announcement is good news for American farmers," Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman and U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick said in a joint statement, adding that China's action was "another positive step for trade between our two countries and demonstrates the Chinese government's commitment to the WTO principle of using sound science to determine such issues."
China has maintained that it could not properly issue food safety permits without testing genetically modified crops. The Bush administration and U.S. agribusiness companies countered that the safety of genetically modified soybeans has already been proved around the world. They accused Beijing of employing bogus concerns as a guise for protectionism, blocking imports of foreign soybeans to protect the incomes of China's farmers.
Not coincidentally, they asserted, last summer's stalemate at China's ports followed the release of Chinese statistics showing a dramatic surge in soybean imports to more than 20 million tons for the year -- a leap of more than 80 percent from 2002.
During two visits to China, President Bush pressed its leaders to scrap food safety barriers to soybean imports. Last fall, Commerce Secretary Donald L. Evans and Zoellick advanced the issue as well, portraying China's stance as a key test of the country's compliance with the market-opening pledges that accompanied its entry to the World Trade Organization.
The lobbying over soybeans heated up at the same time that overall trade relations between China and the United States were growing tense. China's trade surplus with the United States ballooned beyond $120 billion last year, and members of Congress blamed the flow of goods for the loss of millions of American jobs. The Commerce Department slapped punitive tariffs on such Chinese goods as textiles and furniture, and the Bush administration pressed China to increase the value of its currency, arguing that its allegedly low price made its exports unfairly cheap. China has dismissed such accusations, asserting that it was being made the scapegoat for the erosion of American manufacturing.
Against that backdrop, Monday's announcement, which also included approval of two corn and two cotton products, seemed likely to ease some of the tension.
"We're certainly happy that this is happening," said Phillip Laney, China director for the American Soybean Association. "It's going to eliminate some of the periodic disruptions to trade that have occurred. That's going to benefit us, and it's going to benefit our customer."
Under the directive from the Agriculture Ministry, the old temporary food safety regulatory system will be allowed to expire on April 20, while importers can immediately apply for new safety permits that will be governed by permanent rules.
Still, the new rules do not eliminate the possibility of a fresh battle over soybeans. Many of the ships caught in last summer's stalemate were held at sea because they lacked another required piece of paper: a certificate needed to get a required inspection to determine whether the shipments were contaminated by fungus or other threats to crops.
If authorities want to pinch imports and raise the price of domestic soybeans, that lever remains available, Laney said. Still, he said, "it's really great to have this one resolved."
segunda-feira, fevereiro 23, 2004
gold not so good as store of value (price may overshoot),
Philip Coggan: A touch of gold
By Philip Coggan
Published: February 20 2004 11:40 | Last Updated: February 20 2004 11:40
Gold is shining again. Having broken above $400 an ounce last year, the bullion price wobbled a bit in early this year, but is now at about $415 an ounce. Those of my columns that mention gold tend to attract significant reader response, matched only by those that feature technical analysis. In both cases, there seems to be a quasi- religious undertone to some reactions. One reader said that I had "embraced the dark side" after my last golden (or should that be leaden?) effort.
My difficulty with the argument of some gold bugs is that it has several interlinking strands. While I am happy to agree with some of their points, it is harder to buy into the whole philosophy.
The first strand is that gold is the only real source of value, a commodity that is limited in supply and has traditionally been accepted as money. Western economies went wrong when they ceased to use gold as an anchor for their monetary systems; our current paper money system is doomed to collapse. Gold bugs go on to argue that the yellow metal is the only true "store of value". All too often, they add, there has been a conspiracy to keep the gold price down, usually involving the central banks.
This is where the argument becomes rather difficult to accept. Over the very long term, gold has been a store of value, but not over the past 25 years; gold is worth less than half of its peak value. In a way, that is unfortunate for gold lovers. Had the bullion price moved smoothly up from $35 an ounce in the early 1970s to $400 today, the store-of-value case would be much stronger. But the $800-plus peak did occur and is clearly a sign that speculative and other forces can drive gold above its "true" value. Thus investors need to consider whether they might be overpaying for gold at any given time - a sign that it may not be the perfect store-of-value after all.
The bugs' second strand is that there has been a conspiracy in financial markets, but it has been a conspiracy to force the price of gold up. Central banks have agreed to limit their bullion sales to avoid flooding the market. But again, there seems to be a problem with the store-of-value argument if a major holder has to limit its sales to protect the price.
Where it is far easier to agree with the gold camp is that, in a world of paper money, inflation must always be a potential threat. True, the peaks in consumer price inflation have gradually declined over the past 30 years. But the inflation has simply moved into asset prices, notably of equities, property and bonds.
There has been an explosion in credit growth, which is debt that appears to be validated by the corresponding rise in asset prices; borrowers have collateral for their loans. But of course, these developments are two sides of the same coin. Without the credit growth, asset prices would not be as high as they are.
Eventually, this debt will have to be dealt with, either by widespread default or by inflating the debt away. Gold might conceivably be a hedge against either event. If defaults were sufficiently large, the banking system would come under threat and investors might prefer gold to cash. If inflation rose sufficiently, investors would seek it out as a hedge against the deteriorating value of paper money, as they did in the 1970s.
Either of these outcomes is possible, though it might be many years before the debt burden turns into a debt crunch. It would clearly take some catalyst (sharply higher interest rates or unemployment) for it to do so.
But it is worth remembering that other commodities can also act as a hedge against inflation and may have the additional attraction of being direct beneficiaries of rapid Chinese economic growth. Copper, for example, has recently reached an eight-year high on the back of Chinese demand.
In contrast, gold is more of an investment than an industrial commodity. Annual demand for gold actually fell by 5 per cent last year. In total, the world's central banks hold about 28,553 tonnes of bullion, according to the World Gold Council. At $400 an ounce, that works out at slightly less than $3,700bn - the equivalent of seven years' worth of global demand.
This helps to explain why, in spite of the lavish attention paid to gold, it has been outshone by many other metals including silver in recent times. Indeed, gold's recent surge is really noteworthy only in dollar terms. In euros, the price is 1.4 per cent lower than at the start of 2003; in sterling terms, it is just 2 per cent higher.
Nevertheless, those concerned about a further decline in the dollar might, on recent evidence, be interested in adding gold to their portfolios. This highlights the strongest case for gold - that it is an efficient diversifier of portfolios. Gold has traditionally had about zero correlation with equities and virtually no correlation with bonds or property.
Exposure to gold can be achieved through mining shares. But this is not a "pure" play; many mining companies diversify across several metals and some hedge their exposure to the gold price. In all cases, investors run the "management risk" that the company may be badly run.
Those who wanted to own gold directly use to face heavy mark-up costs on gold coins and the like. But it is now easy to own gold directly at minimal cost via Gold Bullion Securities, a security listed on the London Stock Exchange (there is a similar security in Australia). GBS is a sort of index-tracker for gold, with each share representing one-tenth of an ounce of bullion. Management fees are 0.3 per cent a year.
Until the short-term threat from inflation becomes clearer, investors will not want to devote too much of their portfolios to gold. After all, it has seen several false dawns over the past 20 years and it pays no income. Perhaps gold, other commodities and index-linked bonds, should make up an "inflation hedge" of between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of investors' portfolios. But such a suggestion is still good news for the gold bugs; many investors will have much smaller exposures than that.
